Big Tech Backed Trump for Acceleration. They Got a Decel President Instead
https://rss.ponder.cat/post/150312
rss.ponder.catBig Tech Backed Trump for Acceleration. They Got a Decel President Instead - Pondercat RSSBig Tech Backed Trump for Acceleration. They Got a Decel President Instead
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In October of 2023
[https://www.404media.co/marc-andreesen-manifesto-says-ai-regulation-is-a-form-of-murder/],
Marc Andreessen, founder of the Silicon Valley venture capital firm Andreessen
Horowitz (a16z), published the “The Techno-Optimist Manifesto,” arguing that
human ingenuity has been stagnated and demoralized by regulation, and that the
only viable path forward for society is the accelerated development and adoption
of new technologies, and specifically artificial intelligence. Andreessen was
only formalizing and articulating a position that had already gained traction
among tech company executives and Twitter shitposters like @BasedBeffJezos
[https://twitter.com/BasedBeffJezos?ref=404media.co] (Andreessen crowned him a
“patron saint” of techno-optimism), who adopted the label of effective
accelerationists, or e/acc. As the 2024 presidential election got closer,
Andreessen, Elon Musk, other tech CEOs, and less consequential shitposters saw a
natural alliance between their cause and Donald Trump’s campaign. Trump wanted
to slash and burn government regulation in all forms, but also specifically in a
way that would unleash tech and AI’s true potential. Joe Biden and the
Democratic party, the party of big government, Lina Khan’s antimonopolist FTC,
welfare, and fear of climate change, were luddites. They demanded that tech
platforms limit speech they perceived to be harmful. They wanted AI regulated so
it could limit real and theoretical harm in the future, including science
fiction nightmares about artificial general intelligence. They were worried
about the environmental and energy costs of mining cryptocurrency and massive
datacenters for training frontier AI models. They were referred to as
decelerationists (decels) and degrowthers, a derogatory umbrella term that
covers everything from the ambition to actually reduce the number of humans of
the planet in order to make it more sustainable (a future most vividly imagined
in Kim Stanley Robinson’s novel The Ministry for the Future ) to any form of
regulation on AI. Andreesen is so passionate about this position in his
manifesto that he says that this type of regulation is “a form or murder”
because it could stop the development of life saving technologies, and makes a
list “enemies” of AI, which includes supporters of “sustainability,” “social
responsibility,” and “trust and safety,” the latter of which refers to the
people at tech companies who try to keep platforms safe for users. The good news
for Andreessen and the accelerationists is that they backed Trump and he won.
Andreessen is advising the administration. Venture Capitalist David Sacks is the
White House AI and crypto “czar.” Musk and his posse of young engineers from his
companies are doing the slashing and burning themselves. The regulation on AI
and everything else they didn’t like is in the process of being removed, and the
administration is working on tax cuts that will benefit them all. The bad news
for these people is that Trump is also the Decel-in-Chief. The most painfully
obvious evidence for this is Trump’s cataclysmic tariffs this week, which sent
the stock market tumbling, and will be particularly damaging to giant tech
companies. The problem here is not just “uncertainty in the markets.” As Jason
wrote yesterday, the tariffs are aggressive, wide ranging, and very painful for
tech companies that rely on complex global supply chains. It seems that the
Trump administration tried to at least temporarily throw the tech industry a
bone here by exempting semiconductors from these tariffs, but as the Wall Street
Journal explains
[https://www.wsj.com/tech/exempt-or-not-the-chip-industry-wont-escape-tariffs-a6c771db?ref=404media.co],
this is a fantasy: “[M]ost chip imports are indirect. Chips typically are made
overseas, packaged up there and inserted into electronics shipped across the
globe–including to the U.S., where they will be subject to tariffs as high as
49%. Even many U.S.-made chips are sent to Taiwan, China or Southeast Asia for
final assembly before being re-exported to end customers.” Unless Trump folds,
the tariffs will make the price of everything go up. Unemployment will go up.
People will buy less stuff, and companies will spend less money on advertising
that powers tech platforms. The tech industry, which has thrived on the cheap
labor, cheap parts, cheap manufacturing, and supply chains enabled by free and
cheap international trade, will now have artificial costs and bureaucracy tacked
onto all of this. The market knows this, which is why tech stocks are eating
shit. Meanwhile, there is deafening silence from Musk, Andresseen, and the usual
e/acc shitposters, who spent the last three months doing victory laps for
Trump’s win, owning the libs, and posting AI-generated images of the glass tower
cities and Mars space colonies that will be built under Trump’s admin and
unrestrained technological progress. We’d be quiet too if we were them because
it’s such a humiliating self own. Maybe, like many other pundits, they thought
that Trump was just bluffing about tariffs. Maybe they thought they could push
him in a direction that was purely beneficial to their industry. He might still
back down. But at least for now, what the accelerationists did here by backing
Trump is not just accidentally shoot themselves in the foot, but methodically
blow off each of their toes with a .50 caliber sniper rifle. Even on a long
enough timeline, there is no world in which the techno-optimist utopia comes to
be in the United States under protectionist, isolationist policies. The Trump
administration has also set to work dismantling the academic, scientific,
research, and immigration infrastructures that have allowed business and
innovation to thrive in the US, and the soft-power structures that have made it
easy for tech companies to enter and dominate markets all over the world. Even
if Americans believed and wanted to go back in time to a post WWII or turn of
the century US economy, which has always been the backwards looking, regressive
mantra of the MAGA movement, it is inherently incompatible with progress and the
future because the future is not about cranking out Sherman tanks and gas
powered Buicks. The techno-optimist utopia relies on the complex supply chains
Trump threw into chaos this week, where different manufacturing and fabrication
hubs with highly specialized expertise feed into a mutually beneficial system of
free markets in order to make iPhones, semiconductors, lithium batteries, and so
on. Trump has also thrown chaos into America’s software and service businesses,
which require a neverending supply of new markets and new people to sell to in
the name of chasing growth, scale, and new users; growing something like
Facebook or OpenAI with the scale the stock market wants to see requires signing
up users by the countryload; that’s far easier to do in a regulatory environment
where you’re a willing partner with those countries, not creating trade wars and
isolationist bureaucracies. As Peter Thiel loves to say
[https://venturebeat.com/business/vc-peter-thiel-you-can-either-invest-in-bits-or-atoms/?ref=404media.co#:~:text=Investor%20Peter%20Thiel%20believes%20that,not%20enough%20%E2%80%9Catom%E2%80%9D%20companies.],
venture capitalists can invest in either bits or atoms, meaning digital
products, or actual physical things. Trump is currently fucking Silicon Valley
on both ends. Making things will be much harder even if we adopt the fantasy
that a lot of manufacturing jobs can be reclaimed from countries like China,
India, and Vietnam, because we simply don’t have the atoms we need in the United
States. America has used countries around the world both for their raw materials
but also for their cheap labor; the “trade deficits” that Trump speaks of are
largely due to American companies setting up factories in places with cheap
labor and extracting value from those countries to sell products to Americans.
It’s Nike, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and other American conglomerates that
benefit most from global trade, not the factory workers making a few dollars a
day. Moving this infrastructure to the United States is not advisable or
feasible because lots of the jobs American companies have outsourced to China
have already been outsourced from there to poorer countries like Vietnam,
Cambodia, and India because many Chinese people have realized they don’t want to
do this type of work. And many of those jobs are being automated by robots.
Those jobs aren’t coming back to the United States, and we shouldn’t want them
to, anyway. Meanwhile, the United States has exactly one rare Earth mineral mine
in the entire country, which itself only became active after years of mishaps,
regulatory mess, a bankruptcy, and a period of Chinese ownership. [Content
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