Effective emergency management prevented larger catastrophe after climate change fueled heavy rains in Central Mississippi river valley

The #floods inundated large rural areas including agricultural fields, especially in #Arkansas which has resulted in an estimated 78 Million USD of damage due to losses in fields that were already planted. Larger losses were avoided due to the timing of the floods before other #crops like #peanuts and #cotton were planted, and since there is still a window to replant crops like #corn and #soybeans.

Based on gridded data products, we find that the extreme #rainfall event over the study region is relatively rare, expected to occur in today’s #climate only once every 90-240 years across different observational and reanalysis datasets. However, in a 1.3°C cooler climate, extreme rainfall such as observed would be even rarer. The best estimates for the increase in likelihood for the 2025 event associated with this warming is between a factor 2 to 5, and the increase in intensity for an event of equivalent rarity as observed is 13-26%.

To quantify the role of human-induced #ClimateChange in this increased likelihood and intensity we also analyse climate model data over the study region for the historical period. The best estimate of the synthesised result, combining observations with climate models, is about a 40% increase in likelihood and about a 9% increase in intensity. These estimates are smaller than the observed trends due to large discrepancies between the climate model results. While some models show increases similar to or larger than the observed trends, others show weaker or even decreasing trends.

In contrast, #ClimateModels consistently project that extreme precipitation events such as the one observed in April 2025 will become more frequent and intense in the future as global temperatures rise. Under current climate policies – which will lead to warming of approximately 2.6°C by 2100 – such extremes are expected to approximately double in likelihood again, and increase in intensity by about a further 7%.

As the moisture that fuelled the rainfall event was partly coming from the #GulfOfMexico we also assessed the role of climate change in the sea surface temperatures. We found that these waters were heated by approximately 1.2 °C (2.2 °F) due to human-caused climate change, and such #ocean conditions are now about 14 times more likely than in a cooler pre-industrial world. This contributed to higher #evaporation rates, increasing the availability of moisture in the rainfall event.

The strong observed trends in precipitation extremes in this region are also found in other studies using different methods, across different regions, including the Central #Mississippi river valley and are assessed as being attributable to climate change by the #IPCC AR6 report.

In conclusion, due to (1) the observed trends that are (2) in line with IPCC assessments and other literature in the region, and (3) the clear emergence of a climate change signal with further #warming in all climate models as well as (4) the availability of more moisture due to higher SSTs, we state that climate change amplified the heavy rainfall leading to the floods and that the estimate from observations and models combined of a 9% increase in intensity and 40% increase in likelihood is conservative and the role of climate change could be as large as the observations alone suggest

Despite being an extremely complex event, with tornadoes, flash floods, riverine floods and landslides overlapping, the US National Weather Service made a tremendous effort to provide early warnings for the floods, in some cases up to a week in advance of river crests. These early warnings allowed state and local emergency departments to prepare, inform the public, and evacuate those at highest risk. While any loss of life is devastating, the outcomes of this event point to the effectiveness of decades-long investments made in forecasting, #EarlyWarningSystems, and #forecast-based action.

Nearly half of NWS field offices are facing vacancy rates of 20% or more, double the short-staffing levels of a decade ago. Former NWS leaders have recently warned that layoffs could impact the ability of NWS offices to respond to extreme weather events and keep people safe.

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/effective-emergency-management-prevented-larger-catastrophe-after-climate-change-fueled-heavy-rains-in-central-mississippi-river-valley/

#ExtremeWeather
#WeatherAttribution

What the heck is “#CornSweat” and is it making the Midwest more dangerous?

It’s pretty much just as gross as it sounds.

"In one 2020 study, researchers from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics analyzed a past summer heat wave in the Midwest and found that cropland — most of which comprised corn in this part of the country — can increase moisture in the air above it by up to 40 percent."

by Benji Jones
Aug 29, 2024

"Ah, yes, late August in the Midwest: a time for popsicles by the lake, a trip to the county fair, and, of course, extreme humidity made more miserable by … corn sweat.

"Corn sweat. It’s a thing! And people are talking about it.

The term refers to the moisture released by fields of corn during hot and sunny weather. Like all other plants, corn transpires — meaning, it sucks up water from the ground and expels it into the air as a way to stay cool and distribute nutrients. Moisture also enters the air when water in the soil evaporates. Together with transpiration, this process is called #evapotranspiration.

"So, where you find loads of plants packed tightly into one place, whether the Amazon rainforest or #Iowa, humidity can skyrocket during hot and especially sunny periods, making the air feel oppressive.

"That’s what happened this week: A late-summer #heatwave brought record and near-record temperatures to parts of the Midwest where there also happen to be vast fields of corn. With plenty of sunlight and temperatures in the high 90s, it was enough to make corn sweat, producing extremely uncomfortable weather.

"It’s not that corn sweats more than other plants — an acre releases less moisture on average than, say, a large oak tree — but the Midwest has a lot of corn in late August. In Iowa, for example, more than two-thirds of the area is farmland, and corn is the top crop (followed by #soybeans, which, by the way, also sweat)."

[...]

"Again, it’s not just crops across the #Midwest that release moisture, increase humidity, and make summers feel disgusting (I know firsthand; I grew up in Iowa). The millions of acres of #prairie that industrial farmland replaced — mostly to feed livestock and make ethanol — would have also produced loads of moisture, Basso said.

"But there are some key differences between native #ecosystems and #IndustrialFarmland, he added. '#NativePrairies are diverse ecosystems with a variety of plant species, each with different root depths and water needs, helping to create a balanced moisture cycle,' he told me. 'In contrast, corn and #soy #monocultures are uniform and can draw water from the soil more quickly.'"

Read more:
https://www.vox.com/down-to-earth/369117/corn-sweat-explained-heat-wave-midwest?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-us

Scientists test #agriculture and #SolarEnergy on #Illinois #farms

Two experiments in the state are measuring which crops could grow well under these panels.

By Juanpablo Ramirez-Franco
Jul 18, 2024, 2:58pm EDT

"Thousands of #wildflowers are blooming under rows of solar panels in eastern Illinois. #Milkweeds, #BlackEyedSusans and native #PrairieGrasses catch the sunlight that streams past solar panels on one end of this 54-acre property near Champaign.

"'Obviously, this setting is not perfect for the farming system,' D.K. Lee, a professor of crop sciences at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, said about the narrow space between solar panel arrays.

"But this experimental station called #SolarFarm 2.0 could help UIUC scientists determine whether the marriage between Midwestern agriculture and solar power will be a happy one. Researchers are piloting how crops such as grains and #soybeans used primarily to feed livestock grow with solar panels obstructing their full view of the sun. The counterintuitive practice is called #agrivoltaics, a nascent industry that partners solar developers looking for large plots of land and farmers looking to make additional income.

"That’s why two parallel experiments are underway here to find out what can grow and thrive under solar panels. To hit the ambitious clean energy targets set by state and federal officials, solar power will have to increase close to seven times over current capacity by 2035. That will mean millions of acres devoted to solar power — many of which could be in America’s #farmlands. But to make sure that agricultural communities aren’t left behind by the clean energy transition, scientists want to know what it will take for life to persist beneath solar panels — potentially a first step for farmers and solar power to co-exist.

"'We can only farm about 70% of the land here,' said Bruce E. Branham, professor of horticulture at UIUC. 'So we’ve got 30% of the land that would be farmed in full sun that is just vacant.'

"But in just two years and despite physical constraints, initial findings suggest that the #sorghum grain could be a promising crop to grow alongside solar panels. Branham said that so far it appears that combining sorghum with solar panels has resulted in a 59% increase in efficiency. And wildlife, including #birds and #bees, are flocking to the improved habitat. It’s a good start, but there’s still ways to go before solar farms like these are generating serious energy.

"'This is a 54-acre site, and we’re getting 12 megawatts,' Banham said. 'A lot of power plants are much, much greater than that.'

"In all, Solar Farm 2.0 produces close to 1% of the generating power of the #ClintonPowerStation, a #NuclearPowerPlant just a 45 minute drive east. But for Banham and others, this presents an opportunity to combine Midwestern row crops with solar power to generate enough energy to compete with #FossilFuels and other clean energy alternatives."

Read more:
https://www.wbez.org/environment/2024/07/18/scientists-test-agriculture-and-solar-energy-on-illinois-farms