Democratic leaders are telling their party's biggest donors that keeping Montana's Senate seat blue is a real challenge.
However, they are planning to go on offense in Florida to retain their majority.

Why it matters:
Without Montana, the math for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) to keep his job gets very difficult.

But Democrats are signaling they want to expand the playing field and be in a position to steal Republican seats in states like #Florida.
-- Yes, it's still red, but former President Trump isn't expected to win by double digits.

They are also eyeing #Texas, where a recent poll has Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) up by three points against Rep. #Colin #Allred (D-Texas).

Driving the news:

Officials acknowledged Sen. #Jon #Tester (D-Mont.) is down in the polls, but party strategists still see a path for him to defy the odds and win, just like Sen. Susan Collins of Maine did on the Republican side in 2020.

"It sounds like Gary Peters is thinking about abandoning Jon Tester," NRSC spokesperson Philip Letsou told Axios. "No matter what Democrats do, the NRSC will do whatever it takes to ensure Ted Cruz and Rick Scott defeat the radical liberals Chuck Schumer and his billionaire allies have propped up against them."

The intrigue:
Republicans held their donor retreat just up the coast in Sea Island, Georgia, where the National Republican Senatorial Committee explained why they are eyeing a 52-seat majority.

At both events, there was a mixture of hope and fear.

In addition to Montana, there were concerns about #Ohio, where Sen. #Sherrod #Brown (D-Ohio) faces a tough re-election in a state Trump could carry by eight or nine percentage points.

The most optimistic pitch the Democratic donors received was from #Tennessee state Rep. #Gloria #Johnson, their party's nominee to defeat Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) in a race the Cook Political Report is rating a "solid R."

What we're hearing:
Democrats are contemplating a late blitz in the Florida Senate race, where Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla) has just a two-point lead over former Rep. #Debbie #Mucarsel-#Powell in the latest public poll.

While air time hasn't been officially booked, Democratic sources tell us they expect the DSCC to make a splash in Florida in the coming weeks.

From Labor Day to Election Day, Democrats have spent or reserved some $5.6 million in advertising in Florida, according to AdImpact.

Over the same period, Republicans are at $4.4 million, but Scott's campaign likes to buy week to week, meaning they could pump more money into the race if they feel it's warranted.

https://www.axios.com/2024/09/25/senate-democrats-florida-rick-scott-mucarsel-powell

Democrats have a choice: Do they expand the Senate map?

Republicans’ acute Senate candidate-quality problem has come back to haunt them.

In a cycle in which Democratic-held seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Montana were up for grabs,
the GOP managed to field candidates ranging from mediocre to dismal (e.g., Kari Lake in Arizona)
-- and is in deep trouble in all but one.

These Republican cranks are proving no match for wily incumbents such as
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio)
and talented House members making a run for the Senate
(e.g., Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, Rep. Ruben Gallego of Arizona).


At this point, Democrats are feeling comfortable (although not complacent) about all but Montana.

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), running for his fourth term, managed to stay afloat in a deep-red state even in 2012,when President Barack Obama ran double digits behind Mitt Romney there.

This cycle, however, polling at the end of August showed Tester down several points, prompting several analysts to shift the race to “Lean Republican.”

And Montana looms large in this cycle.

With Sen. Joe Manchin III (I-W.Va.) leaving the Senate, Democrats will lose control if Tester loses,
even if they hold all of the other Republican-targeted states
— unless they can pick up another seat somewhere else.

Democrats have some big decisions to make.

Tester famously closes strongly and certainly could still win.
Spending heavily on TV ads and turnout might be enough.

But some analysts and party activists are looking for backup paths to the majority

Remarkably, Senate GOP incumbents in Florida, Texas and Nebraska have only tiny leads in recent polls
(e.g., two percentage points in deep-red Nebraska),
a shocking result in states that have voted strongly Republican in recent years.


Incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), a lackluster candidate who has not had a serious challenger, now faces independent candidate #Dan #Osborn.
She is breaking a promise to serve just two terms.

Osborn is “a union leader and Navy veteran hoping that a nontraditional background can help him overperform in the state’s rural areas and with blue-collar voters,” according to the Cook Political Report.

Moreover, “The super PAC Retire Career Politicians
— which is backed by the Democratic group Sixteen Thirty Fund
— has already spent nearly $1.4 million on TV ads, which goes a long way in an inexpensive state like Nebraska,” Cook explains.

“Their first ad in early August emphasized Osborn comes from the working class and pitches him as uniquely positioned to fight for economic relief.”

Some additional Democratic investment in Nebraska appears to be a cost-effective backup plan for Democrats. A modest expenditure wouldn’t require significant (if any) diversion of funds from Montana.


Two other races are dicier.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) has a slight lead in most polls over Rep.
Colin #Allred (D-Tex.)
— a dynamic candidate, a hawk on the border and fourth-generation Texan
— whom former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) endorsed.

A recent Morning Consult poll had Allred up by one point.

That brings us to Florida, where Republican Sen. Rick Scott faces Democrat #Debbie #Mucarsel-#Powell.

The latest Emerson poll shows her down by just one point, another by just four points.

Both are in the margin of error.

And those polls come at a time when Scott is vastly outspending her.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/09/22/texas-florida-montana-2024-senate-races-majority/

‘A different level than 2020’: Trump’s plan to steal election is taking shape

Trump has repeatedly refused to commit to accepting the election results,
declining multiple times to do so during a 27 June debate.
He has suggested that Christians would “never have to vote again”if he wins.

The anti-democratic sentiment has been echoed by other prominent conservatives,
including Mike #Howell, the director of the oversight project at the #HeritageFoundation, who said earlier this year there was a “0% chance of a free and fair election”.
“I’m formally accusing the Biden administration of creating the conditions that most reasonable policymakers and officials cannot in good conscience certify an election,” he said at a Heritage Foundation event this summer

The effort poses a challenge that again would test the strength of the US’s voting system and its democratic institutions.
It could probably stretch from little-known county election officials to the Congress.
In some ways, Trump’s attempt to challenge the election result in 2024 could look a lot like his effort in 2020.
It has begun months before election day with the seeding of doubt about the integrity of the election and could continue after.

There are two key differences.

First, Trump may be better prepared.

Mitchell, a close Trump ally, has spent the last few years building up a #network of activists focused on local boards of elections.

And the Republican National Committee’s election litigation team is now being led by Christina #Bobb, an election denier
who is now facing criminal charges for her efforts to overturn the 2020 race.

The RNC claims it is recruiting an army of 100,000 #poll #observers who could provide significant disruption during voting and counting.

“I think we saw efforts by Republicans in 2020 that were pretty ham-handed,” said Marc #Elias, a top Democratic voting rights lawyer.

“I worry that there will be both legal and extralegal efforts by Republicans to keep ballots from being counted.”

But more significantly, the idea that the 2020 election was stolen has moved from the fringes to being a pillar of the Republican party.

A January poll from PRRI found that 66% of Republicans believe the 2020 election was stolen.

“The most important thing we have to do is protect the vote.
You have to keep your eyes open because these people want to cheat
and they do cheat, and, frankly, it’s the only thing they do well,”
Trump said in a prerecorded video that played all four nights during the Republican national convention in July.

The belief in stolen elections, Elias said, was “no longer the provenance of crazy people like Rudy #Giuliani, Jenna #Ellis and Sidney #Powell.

This is no longer the province of people who thought that there were bamboo filaments in paper or mythical sea creatures involved in the election with Venezuelan dictators.

“It has become now the standard position of the Republican party.”

(1/N)

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/12/trump-overturn-result-presidential-election-vote?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other