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#osborn

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Jason Beets<p>If Kamala Harris had managed to win the presidential election, Nebraska would have been the tipping point state for Senate control.</p><p>Because Donald Trump won the presidential election, Montana was the tipping point election for Senate control. </p><p>14/x </p><p><a href="https://newsie.social/tags/US" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>US</span></a> <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/Politics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Politics</span></a> <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/Senate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Senate</span></a> <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/Nebraska" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Nebraska</span></a> <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/Montana" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Montana</span></a> <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/Osborn" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Osborn</span></a> <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/Tester" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Tester</span></a></p>
Chuck Darwin<p>Everyone expected Nebraska’s incumbent Republican senator, <br>Deb Fischer, to cruise to re-election. </p><p>But then a challenger emerged, <br>and he’s starting to pick up momentum. </p><p>Independent labor union leader <a href="https://c.im/tags/Dan" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Dan</span></a> <a href="https://c.im/tags/Osborn" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Osborn</span></a> has raised a lot of money in recent months, <br>and polls have tightened enough that the Cook Political Report has shifted their forecast for the race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.”</p><p><a href="https://osbornforsenate.com" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="">osbornforsenate.com</span><span class="invisible"></span></a></p><p>DAN'S PLAN: FOR WORKERS, SMALL BUSINESSES, AND FAMILY FARMERS</p><p><a href="https://www.thebulwark.com/p/an-independent-senate-candidate-sets" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">thebulwark.com/p/an-independen</span><span class="invisible">t-senate-candidate-sets</span></a></p>
Chuck Darwin<p>Independent candidate <a href="https://c.im/tags/Dan" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Dan</span></a> <a href="https://c.im/tags/Osborn" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Osborn</span></a>’s. run<br>to oust Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE) this November <br>has grabbed national attention as polls have shown a surprisingly close race, <br>with a new survey out Tuesday even showing Osborn ahead by one point.</p><p>The latest SurveyUSA poll has Obsborn leading Fischer, by one point, 45 to 44 percent. </p><p>The poll of 558 likely voters also showed significant movement in how much of the electorate now feels they know enough about Osborn to make a decision. <br>In the August version of the same poll, 47 percent of Nebraskans said they didn’t know enough about Osborn, compared to 24 percent in the September poll.<br><a href="https://www.mediaite.com/politics/independent-challenger-overtakes-nebraskas-republican-senator-in-new-poll-drops-scathing-new-ad/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">mediaite.com/politics/independ</span><span class="invisible">ent-challenger-overtakes-nebraskas-republican-senator-in-new-poll-drops-scathing-new-ad/</span></a></p>
Chuck Darwin<p>Democrats have a choice: Do they expand the Senate map? </p><p>Republicans’ acute Senate candidate-quality problem has come back to haunt them. </p><p>In a cycle in which Democratic-held seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Montana were up for grabs, <br>the GOP managed to field candidates ranging from mediocre to dismal (e.g., Kari Lake in Arizona) <br>-- and is in deep trouble in all but one. </p><p>These Republican cranks are proving no match for wily incumbents such as <br>Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) <br>and talented House members making a run for the Senate <br>(e.g., Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, Rep. Ruben Gallego of Arizona).</p><p>
At this point, Democrats are feeling comfortable (although not complacent) about all but Montana. </p><p>Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), running for his fourth term, managed to stay afloat in a deep-red state even in 2012,when President Barack Obama ran double digits behind Mitt Romney there. </p><p>🆘 This cycle, however, polling at the end of August showed Tester down several points, prompting several analysts to shift the race to “Lean Republican.”

And Montana looms large in this cycle. </p><p>With Sen. Joe Manchin III (I-W.Va.) leaving the Senate, 🔥Democrats will lose control if Tester loses, <br>even if they hold all of the other Republican-targeted states <br>— unless they can pick up another seat somewhere else.<br>
Democrats have some big decisions to make. </p><p>Tester famously closes strongly and certainly could still win. <br>Spending heavily on TV ads and turnout might be enough. </p><p>But some analysts and party activists are looking for backup paths to the majority</p><p>Remarkably, Senate GOP incumbents in Florida, Texas and Nebraska have only tiny leads in recent polls <br>(e.g., two percentage points in deep-red Nebraska), <br>a shocking result in states that have voted strongly Republican in recent years.</p><p>
Incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), a lackluster candidate who has not had a serious challenger, now faces independent candidate <a href="https://c.im/tags/Dan" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Dan</span></a> <a href="https://c.im/tags/Osborn" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Osborn</span></a>. <br>She is breaking a promise to serve just two terms. </p><p>Osborn is “a union leader and Navy veteran hoping that a nontraditional background can help him overperform in the state’s rural areas and with blue-collar voters,” according to the Cook Political Report. </p><p>Moreover, “The super PAC Retire Career Politicians<br> — which is backed by the Democratic group Sixteen Thirty Fund<br> — has already spent nearly $1.4 million on TV ads, which goes a long way in an inexpensive state like Nebraska,” Cook explains. </p><p>“Their first ad in early August emphasized Osborn comes from the working class and pitches him as uniquely positioned to fight for economic relief.”
<br>Some additional Democratic investment in Nebraska appears to be a cost-effective backup plan for Democrats. A modest expenditure wouldn’t require significant (if any) diversion of funds from Montana.<br>
<br>Two other races are dicier. </p><p>Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) has a slight lead in most polls over Rep. <br>Colin <a href="https://c.im/tags/Allred" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Allred</span></a> (D-Tex.) <br>— a dynamic candidate, a hawk on the border and fourth-generation Texan <br>— whom former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) endorsed. </p><p>A recent Morning Consult poll had Allred up by one point.</p><p>That brings us to 🔸Florida, where Republican Sen. Rick Scott faces Democrat <a href="https://c.im/tags/Debbie" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Debbie</span></a> <a href="https://c.im/tags/Mucarsel" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Mucarsel</span></a>-<a href="https://c.im/tags/Powell" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Powell</span></a>. </p><p>The latest Emerson poll shows her down by just one point, another by just four points. </p><p>Both are in the margin of error. </p><p>And those polls come at a time when Scott is vastly outspending her.</p><p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/09/22/texas-florida-montana-2024-senate-races-majority/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">washingtonpost.com/opinions/20</span><span class="invisible">24/09/22/texas-florida-montana-2024-senate-races-majority/</span></a></p>
Chuck Darwin<p>Now he’s aiming for a Nebraska Senate seat </p><p>No one has deep-red Nebraska on their list of Swing States. <br>But a 48-year-old pipefitter and union organizer from Omaha is hoping to change that.</p><p>Three years ago, <a href="https://c.im/tags/Dan" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Dan</span></a> <a href="https://c.im/tags/Osborn" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Osborn</span></a> led the Nebraska leg of a US-wide strike against the cereal giant Kellogg<br> as the company pushed for concessions in a new union contract despite posting record profits during the Covid-19 pandemic.</p><p>Now he’s taking on Deb Fischer, <br>a Republican senator, <br>who is running for her third US Senate term in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in 18 years. <br>Osborn is running as an independent <br>and says he hasn’t yet decided who will get his vote come November<br> but his pro-labor, pro-choice views are unlikely to sit well with conservative Republicans</p><p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/29/dan-osborn-nebraska-senate-elections?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">theguardian.com/us-news/2024/a</span><span class="invisible">pr/29/dan-osborn-nebraska-senate-elections?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other</span></a></p>
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