Chuck Darwin<p>Democratic leaders are telling their party's biggest donors that keeping Montana's Senate seat blue is a real challenge. <br>However, they are planning to go on offense in Florida to retain their majority.</p><p>Why it matters: <br>Without Montana, the math for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) to keep his job gets very difficult.</p><p>But Democrats are signaling they want to expand the playing field and be in a position to steal Republican seats in states like <a href="https://c.im/tags/Florida" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Florida</span></a>. <br>-- Yes, it's still red, but former President Trump isn't expected to win by double digits.</p><p>They are also eyeing <a href="https://c.im/tags/Texas" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Texas</span></a>, where a recent poll has Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) up by three points against Rep. <a href="https://c.im/tags/Colin" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Colin</span></a> <a href="https://c.im/tags/Allred" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Allred</span></a> (D-Texas).</p><p>Driving the news: </p><p>Officials acknowledged Sen. <a href="https://c.im/tags/Jon" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Jon</span></a> <a href="https://c.im/tags/Tester" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Tester</span></a> (D-Mont.) is down in the polls, but party strategists still see a path for him to defy the odds and win, just like Sen. Susan Collins of Maine did on the Republican side in 2020.</p><p>"It sounds like Gary Peters is thinking about abandoning Jon Tester," NRSC spokesperson Philip Letsou told Axios. "No matter what Democrats do, the NRSC will do whatever it takes to ensure Ted Cruz and Rick Scott defeat the radical liberals Chuck Schumer and his billionaire allies have propped up against them."</p><p>The intrigue: <br>Republicans held their donor retreat just up the coast in Sea Island, Georgia, where the National Republican Senatorial Committee explained why they are eyeing a 52-seat majority.</p><p>At both events, there was a mixture of hope and fear.</p><p>In addition to Montana, there were concerns about <a href="https://c.im/tags/Ohio" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Ohio</span></a>, where Sen. <a href="https://c.im/tags/Sherrod" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Sherrod</span></a> <a href="https://c.im/tags/Brown" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Brown</span></a> (D-Ohio) faces a tough re-election in a state Trump could carry by eight or nine percentage points.</p><p>The most optimistic pitch the Democratic donors received was from <a href="https://c.im/tags/Tennessee" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Tennessee</span></a> state Rep. <a href="https://c.im/tags/Gloria" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Gloria</span></a> <a href="https://c.im/tags/Johnson" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Johnson</span></a>, their party's nominee to defeat Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) in a race the Cook Political Report is rating a "solid R."</p><p>What we're hearing: <br>Democrats are contemplating a late blitz in the Florida Senate race, where Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla) has just a two-point lead over former Rep. <a href="https://c.im/tags/Debbie" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Debbie</span></a> <a href="https://c.im/tags/Mucarsel" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Mucarsel</span></a>-<a href="https://c.im/tags/Powell" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Powell</span></a> in the latest public poll.</p><p>While air time hasn't been officially booked, Democratic sources tell us they expect the DSCC to make a splash in Florida in the coming weeks.</p><p>From Labor Day to Election Day, Democrats have spent or reserved some $5.6 million in advertising in Florida, according to AdImpact.</p><p>Over the same period, Republicans are at $4.4 million, but Scott's campaign likes to buy week to week, meaning they could pump more money into the race if they feel it's warranted.</p><p><a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/09/25/senate-democrats-florida-rick-scott-mucarsel-powell" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">axios.com/2024/09/25/senate-de</span><span class="invisible">mocrats-florida-rick-scott-mucarsel-powell</span></a></p>
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#mucarsel
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Chuck Darwin<p>Democrats have a choice: Do they expand the Senate map? </p><p>Republicans’ acute Senate candidate-quality problem has come back to haunt them. </p><p>In a cycle in which Democratic-held seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Montana were up for grabs, <br>the GOP managed to field candidates ranging from mediocre to dismal (e.g., Kari Lake in Arizona) <br>-- and is in deep trouble in all but one. </p><p>These Republican cranks are proving no match for wily incumbents such as <br>Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) <br>and talented House members making a run for the Senate <br>(e.g., Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, Rep. Ruben Gallego of Arizona).</p><p>
At this point, Democrats are feeling comfortable (although not complacent) about all but Montana. </p><p>Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), running for his fourth term, managed to stay afloat in a deep-red state even in 2012,when President Barack Obama ran double digits behind Mitt Romney there. </p><p>🆘 This cycle, however, polling at the end of August showed Tester down several points, prompting several analysts to shift the race to “Lean Republican.”
And Montana looms large in this cycle. </p><p>With Sen. Joe Manchin III (I-W.Va.) leaving the Senate, 🔥Democrats will lose control if Tester loses, <br>even if they hold all of the other Republican-targeted states <br>— unless they can pick up another seat somewhere else.<br>
Democrats have some big decisions to make. </p><p>Tester famously closes strongly and certainly could still win. <br>Spending heavily on TV ads and turnout might be enough. </p><p>But some analysts and party activists are looking for backup paths to the majority</p><p>Remarkably, Senate GOP incumbents in Florida, Texas and Nebraska have only tiny leads in recent polls <br>(e.g., two percentage points in deep-red Nebraska), <br>a shocking result in states that have voted strongly Republican in recent years.</p><p>
Incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), a lackluster candidate who has not had a serious challenger, now faces independent candidate <a href="https://c.im/tags/Dan" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Dan</span></a> <a href="https://c.im/tags/Osborn" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Osborn</span></a>. <br>She is breaking a promise to serve just two terms. </p><p>Osborn is “a union leader and Navy veteran hoping that a nontraditional background can help him overperform in the state’s rural areas and with blue-collar voters,” according to the Cook Political Report. </p><p>Moreover, “The super PAC Retire Career Politicians<br> — which is backed by the Democratic group Sixteen Thirty Fund<br> — has already spent nearly $1.4 million on TV ads, which goes a long way in an inexpensive state like Nebraska,” Cook explains. </p><p>“Their first ad in early August emphasized Osborn comes from the working class and pitches him as uniquely positioned to fight for economic relief.”
<br>Some additional Democratic investment in Nebraska appears to be a cost-effective backup plan for Democrats. A modest expenditure wouldn’t require significant (if any) diversion of funds from Montana.<br>
<br>Two other races are dicier. </p><p>Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) has a slight lead in most polls over Rep. <br>Colin <a href="https://c.im/tags/Allred" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Allred</span></a> (D-Tex.) <br>— a dynamic candidate, a hawk on the border and fourth-generation Texan <br>— whom former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) endorsed. </p><p>A recent Morning Consult poll had Allred up by one point.</p><p>That brings us to 🔸Florida, where Republican Sen. Rick Scott faces Democrat <a href="https://c.im/tags/Debbie" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Debbie</span></a> <a href="https://c.im/tags/Mucarsel" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Mucarsel</span></a>-<a href="https://c.im/tags/Powell" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Powell</span></a>. </p><p>The latest Emerson poll shows her down by just one point, another by just four points. </p><p>Both are in the margin of error. </p><p>And those polls come at a time when Scott is vastly outspending her.</p><p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/09/22/texas-florida-montana-2024-senate-races-majority/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">washingtonpost.com/opinions/20</span><span class="invisible">24/09/22/texas-florida-montana-2024-senate-races-majority/</span></a></p>
Chuck Darwin<p>🚨𝗠𝗔𝗦𝗦𝗜𝗩𝗘 𝗡𝗘𝗪𝗦🚨</p><p><a href="https://c.im/tags/%F0%9D%97%97%F0%9D%97%B2%F0%9D%97%AF%F0%9D%97%AF%F0%9D%97%B6%F0%9D%97%B2" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>𝗗𝗲𝗯𝗯𝗶𝗲</span></a> <a href="https://c.im/tags/%F0%9D%97%A0%F0%9D%98%82%F0%9D%97%B0%F0%9D%97%AE%F0%9D%97%BF%F0%9D%98%80%F0%9D%97%B2%F0%9D%97%B9" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>𝗠𝘂𝗰𝗮𝗿𝘀𝗲𝗹</span></a>-<a href="https://c.im/tags/%F0%9D%97%A3%F0%9D%97%BC%F0%9D%98%84%F0%9D%97%B2%F0%9D%97%B9%F0%9D%97%B9" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>𝗣𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗹𝗹</span></a> <br>𝗪𝗜𝗡𝗦 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗺𝗼𝗰𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝗙𝗟 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗚𝗔𝗜𝗡𝗦 𝗽𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗹𝘀 𝗮𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁 𝗥𝗶𝗰𝗸 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝘁𝘁!</p><p>It's official, friend: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell will face off against Trump-backed Sen. Rick Scott in November. </p><p>But right now, polling shows this race is NECK AND NECK (within a single point!), </p><p>and worse: Rick Scott has spent MILLIONS of dollars from his own personal fortune to launch attack ads against Debbie. </p><p>The only way we can fight back and defeat him is with unmatched grassroots support, </p><p>so we’re launching a massive $3 MILLION rapid-response goal. </p><p>𝗦𝗼 𝗽𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲, 𝗿𝘂𝘀𝗵 $𝟮𝟬 𝗯𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗺𝗶𝗱𝗻𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝘁𝗼𝗻𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗮 𝗚𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗘𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗙𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗗𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗿 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗵𝗲𝗹𝗽 𝘂𝘀 𝗱𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗥𝗶𝗰𝗸 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝘁𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗳𝗹𝗶𝗽 𝗙𝗟 𝗯𝗹𝘂𝗲: </p><p><a href="https://debbieforfl.co/8CKTnq" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="">debbieforfl.co/8CKTnq</span><span class="invisible"></span></a></p><p>Team Debbie</p>
Chuck Darwin<p>If Debbie wins in Florida, Democrats will likely maintain our Senate majority. <br>If we lose, our Senate majority is all but doomed.</p><p>Polls show that this race is already neck and neck, but <a href="https://c.im/tags/Rick" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Rick</span></a> <a href="https://c.im/tags/Scott" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Scott</span></a> is already shelling out millions to retake the lead. <br>Debbie can’t pull ahead without you: </p><p>Please, will you rush a donation midnight to flip Florida blue and save our Senate majority?</p><p>Choose an amount:<br>Your contribution will benefit <a href="https://c.im/tags/Debbie" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Debbie</span></a> <a href="https://c.im/tags/Mucarsel" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Mucarsel</span></a>-<a href="https://c.im/tags/Powell" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Powell</span></a>.</p><p><a href="https://secure.actblue.com/donate/mw_dmp_2023_ads_tw" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">secure.actblue.com/donate/mw_d</span><span class="invisible">mp_2023_ads_tw</span></a></p>
Mary Ann Horn<p>Debbie <a href="https://c.im/tags/Mucarsel" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Mucarsel</span></a>-Powell,<br>She's 𝗿𝘂𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝗱𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 <a href="https://c.im/tags/%F0%9D%97%A6%F0%9D%97%B2%F0%9D%97%BB%F0%9D%97%AE%F0%9D%98%81%F0%9D%97%BC%F0%9D%97%BF" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>𝗦𝗲𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿</span></a> 𝗥𝗶𝗰𝗸 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝘁𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗳𝗹𝗶𝗽 𝗙𝗹𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮 𝗯𝗹𝘂𝗲!</p><p>"If you’re all in to expand our Democratic Senate majority and make history in the Sunshine State, chip in now <a href="https://secure.actblue.com/donate/mw_dmp_2023_august_p2p" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">secure.actblue.com/donate/mw_d</span><span class="invisible">mp_2023_august_p2p</span></a></p><p>Rick Scott has failed Floridians –</p>
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