January sets an unexpected temperature record
Both 2023 and 2024 were exceptionally warm years, at just below and above 1.5C relative to preindustrial in the #WMO composite of surface temperature records, respectively. While we are still working to assess the full set of drivers of this warmth, it is clear that a sizable portion of 2024’s elevated temperatures were driven by a moderately strong El Niño event that peaked in November 2023.
January 2025 beat the prior record set in January 2024 by a sizable margin. And unlike the prior record Januaries (2007, 2016, 2020, and 2024) there is currently no #ElNiño event boosting global temperatures; rather, the world is in modest #LaNiña conditions that should, all things being equal, result in lower global temperatures.
So what does this mean? Thankfully #weather models expect global temperatures are set to drop next week as the Northern Hemisphere sharply cools, making it less likely that February will also set a new record. But an unexpected record to start things off may presage higher temperatures this year than many of us thought.
https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/january-sets-an-unexpected-temperature
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