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#recession

22 posts9 participants11 posts today
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The package also covers chemicals, medical devices, electrical & precision equipment as well as agriculture & food products - a range of fruits & vegetables, along with wine, beer & spirits - valued at 6.35 billion euros.

Following a meeting of EU ministers in Brussels on Monday, officials said they were still seeking a deal to avoid #Trump's heavy tariff blow.

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#Trump is threatening a 30% tariff on imports from the #EU from August 1, a level European officials say is unacceptable & would end normal #trade between two of the world's largest markets.

The list, sent to EU member states & seen by Reuters on Tues, pre-dates Trump's move over the weekend to ramp up pressure on the 27-nation bloc & responds instead to #US duties on cars & car parts & a 10% baseline tariff.

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Goldman Sachs is forecasting monthly core #CPI #inflation increases of between 0.3%-0.4% over the next few months, reflecting tariff-related increases in the prices of consumer electronics, autos & apparel. The investment bank expects limited near-term impact on core services inflation.

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The #Fed tracks different #inflation measures for its 2% target. The central bank is expected to leave its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range at a policy meeting later this month. Minutes of the central bank's June 17-18 meeting, which were published last week, showed only "a couple" of officials said they felt rates could fall as soon as the July 29-30 meeting.

#US #consumer prices picked up in June, marking the start of a long-anticipated #tariff-induced increase in #inflation that has kept the #FederalReserve cautious about resuming its #InterestRates cuts.

The Consumer Price Index [#CPI] increased 0.3% last month after edging up 0.1% in May, the #Labor Dept’s Bureau of Labor Statistics [#BLS] said on Tues. That was the largest gain since January.

#economy #TrumpTariffs #Trump #Trumpcession #recession
reuters.com/business/us-inflat

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Update:

In reaction to #Trump’s 30% tariffs on the #EU, EC president Ursula #vonderLeyen said in a statement that such #tariffs “would disrupt essential transatlantic #SupplyChains, to the detriment of #businesses, #consumers & #patients on both sides of the Atlantic.” She also threatened to hit back, though she did not make a retaliation sound imminent, talking about the “adoption of proportionate countermeasures if required.”

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He did not think that Trump’s warning against retaliation would have much effect on the #EU’s appetite to hit back. He said the best #Europe can hope for is a situation in which many of America’s global trading partners retaliate, perhaps in a coordinated way, & #Trump is pressured to strike a less extreme stance.

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If #Trump is serious about such steep #tariffs, it could have serious consequences for the relationship between the #EU & the #US, which are historically intertwined & deeply integrated economically.

If the tariffs rates remain, “that means #TradeWar,” said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the economic think tank Bruegel in Brussels.

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But things changed w/Trump’s announcement on Sat of a flat 30% tariff, & his threat to make that rate even higher should the #EU retaliate.
“If for any reason you decide to raise your #tariffs & retaliate, then, whatever the number you choose to raise them by, will be added onto the 30% that we charge,” #Trump wrote in the letter, which echoed a form letter he has been sending out to many #US trading partners announcing tariff rates.

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#EU policymakers had gradually come around to the possibility that the bloc could face 10% across-the-board #tariffs on all goods sent to the #US, & were hoping to negotiate exceptions for important products. Many were eager to end the economic #uncertainty that #Trump’s #trade announcements had unleashed on German carmakers, Italian wine exporters & Irish pharmaceutical companies alike.