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#cycle25

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Bruce MacDonald

This article reminds me of the old story:

Guy tells a friend: "I see spots before my eyes!"

Friend: "Have you seen a doctor?"

"No, just spots!"

Astro Bob: Let's Count Sunspots
"The original forecast for the current cycle, dubbed Cycle 25, was made in 2019 with the peak predicted for this upcoming July. However, more recent forecasts hint that we reached maximum in late 2024, so we may have already passed the peak. A more definitive answer will have to wait until the sun enters a slump. Then we'll be able to look back with hindsight and better frame the time."
duluthnewstribune.com/lifestyl

Duluth News Tribune · Astro Bob: Let's count sunspots!By Bob King
#sunspots#astronomy#Cycle25
Public
G7IZU RRD

Space Weather

Our sun is a just a little more active this weekend. There have been five flares larger than M-level in the past 48 hours or so, compared to only one between 15 and 20 Feb.

Flares and peak times are below in UT.

M3.3 12h10 UT 21 Feb
M1.4 14h30 UT 21 Feb
M4.9 02h12 UT 23 Feb
M1.0 09h56 UT 23 Feb
M1.6 11h56 UT 23 Feb

There are suggestions that we may see a second peak for "Solar Max" thanks to the sun's northern hemisphere being slower than the south in flipping its magnetic field.

Read more via the link below.

swling.com/blog/2025/02/a-seco

#spaceweather
#cycle25
#solarmax

Public
Dr. John Barentine FRAS

“As a result of this low skill in our forecasts, #SpaceX saw 20 kilometers of position error in their one-day computations. If we’re uncertain in where our spacecraft are by 20 kilometers, then you can throw collision avoidance out the window.”

spacenews.com/geomagnetic-stor

SpaceNews · Geomagnetic storms cause “mass migrations” of satellitesBy Jeff Foust
#Space#Satellites#SpaceSustainability
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Dr. John Barentine FRAS

"The sharp altitude decay of SL1089 revealed by TLE data coincides with the storm main phase onset. Therefore, we call for future research to establish the eventual causal relationship between storm occurrence and satellite orbital decay."

arxiv.org/abs/2411.01654v1

arXiv.orgThe 10 October 2024 geomagnetic storm may have caused the premature reentry of a Starlink satelliteIn this short communication, we qualitatively analyze possible effects of the 10 October 2024 geomagnetic storm on accelerating the reentry of a Starlink satellite from low-Earth orbit (LEO). The storm took place near the maximum of solar cycle (SC) 25, which has shown to be more intense than SC24. Based on preliminary geomagnetic indices, the 10 October 2024, along with the 10 May 2024, were the most intense events since the well-known Halloween storms of October/November 2003. By looking at a preliminary version of the Dst index and two-line element (TLE) altitude data of the Starlink-1089 (SL1089) satellite, we observe a possible connection between storm main phase onset and a sharp decay of SL1089. The satellite was scheduled to reenter on 22 October, but it reentered on 12 October, 10 days before schedule. The sharp altitude decay of SL1089 revealed by TLE data coincides with the storm main phase onset. Therefore, we call for future research to establish the eventual causal relationship between storm occurrence and satellite orbital decay. As predicted by previous works, SC25 is already producing extreme geomagnetic storms with unprecedented satellite orbital drag effects and consequences for current megaconstellations in LEO.
#Space#SpaceSustainability#Cycle25
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