AI 2027 - Intro:
"We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.
We wrote a scenario that represents our best guess about what that might look like. It’s informed by trend extrapolations, wargames, expert feedback, experience at OpenAI, and previous forecasting successes."

by Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean

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"Late 2025: The World’s Most Expensive AI
OpenBrain is building the biggest datacenters the world has ever seen. (To avoid singling out any one existing company, we’re going to describe a fictional artificial general intelligence company, which we’ll call OpenBrain. We imagine the others to be 3–9 months behind OpenBrain.)
GPT-3 (3 x 10^23 FLOPS)
GPT-4 (2 x 10^25 FLOPS)
Agent-1 (3 x 10^27 FLOPS)

GPT-4 required 2⋅1025 FLOP of compute to train. OpenBrain’s latest public model—Agent-0—was trained with 1027 FLOP."
(read more in the description of figure 1)

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"In our timelines forecast, we predict when OpenBrain will internally develop a superhuman coder (SC): an AI system that can do any coding tasks that the best AGI company engineer does, while being much faster and cheaper."
(read more in the description of figure 2)

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"Aided by the new capabilities breakthroughs, Agent-3 is a fast and cheap superhuman coder. OpenBrain runs 200,000 Agent-3 copies in parallel, creating a workforce equivalent to 50,000 copies of the best human coder sped up by 30x.
(...)
Still, they are achieving a year’s worth of algorithmic progress every week and will therefore soon be up against the limits of the Agent-4 paradigm.
(...)
As Agent-4 gets smarter, it becomes harder for Agent-3 to oversee it. For example, Agent-4’s neuralese “language” becomes as alien and incomprehensible to Agent-3 as Agent-3’s is to humans.
(...)
Mar 2027: Superhuman coder (SC):
An AI system that can do the job of the best human coder on tasks involved in AI research but faster, and cheaply enough to run lots of copies.

Aug 2027: Superhuman AI researcher (SAR):
The same as SC but for all cognitive AI research tasks.

Nov 2027: Superintelligent AI researcher (SIAR):
An AI system that is vastly better than the best human researcher at AI research.

Dec 2027: Artificial superintelligence (ASI): An AI system that is much better than the best human at every cognitive task.
(...)
Things that sound like science fiction keep happening in real life."

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