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#secession

8 posts2 participants0 posts today
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Adam Shostack :donor: :rebelverified:

All of this is more interesting as the US Supreme Court chooses to liberate us from the dead hand of the past and abandon precedents long established. Implicitly, these changes may reopen the question of secession from these United States; a question that I’d thought was settled, but then, I thought the same of a variety of decisions and doctrines, such as Roe and Chevron deference.

(7/7; full post, links at is.gd/sxj04J

is.gdShostack + Friends Blog > Voting Twice for Secession Would be More FairThinking about secession and mechanisms
#uspol#secession#voting
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Adam Shostack :donor: :rebelverified:

The best way to handle secession movements is a societal expectation of two votes. One vote on the concept and one vote on the implementation. This mirrors the steps many societies place on other consequential decisions. Buying a house involves an offer, followed by a purchase agreement, followed by a closing. (At least in the US, which is the system I know best.)

Those opposed to secession might put forward the concept of two votes, expecting to lose the first and win the second, or simply because they want to give the voters a chance.

Secession is the most consequential election voters will face. Having a chance to vote twice seems like a reasonable part of how it ought to work. In almost all cases, a plebiscite on secession is outside the Constitutional order, and so the rules are set only by expectations of fairness, and what Jefferson termed “a decent respect to the opinions of mankind.”

(6/7)

#uspol#secession#voting
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Adam Shostack :donor: :rebelverified:

Perhaps the knowledge that a second vote is coming up would lead to harsher negotiation over the terms of secession. It’s hard to estimate how likely that is, but one side or the other can always refuse a bad enough deal and default to the norms between nations, or even return to the question of the ballot or the bullet. Additionally, most secession movements today would result in a new country in close proximity, with bonds of trade, family and familiarity which create pressure towards a fair-ish deal.

What’s more, knowing that there’s another vote and a deeply disaffected minority who’ll be your angry voters if they remain will lead to more generous negotiation, in the spirit of “don’t let the door hit you on the way out.”

Perhaps a second vote could be anti-democratic: the will of the voters in voting “Leave” should be respected! This is a tremendously strong argument, given the perception that elites ignore popular opinion. But the argument cuts both ways. If the elites negotiate a deal other than the one that informed popular opinion, it is profoundly democratic to let the voters have their say.

(5/6)

#uspol#secession#voting
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Adam Shostack :donor: :rebelverified:

For example, Britain would be better off if, following the Leave vote, voters had a chance to vote on the final deal that was in front of them. Giving voters another choice would have allowed them to choose how to “Get Brexit Done:” Agree to the deal, or kill Brexit. Without a second vote, the only way to respect the will of the voters was to push through a bad deal. (It’s tempting to write “an unexpectedly bad deal,” but many Remain voters expected a bad deal.

(4/6)

#uspol#secession#voting
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Adam Shostack :donor: :rebelverified:

That raises the question: are we doing so in the best way possible? In the case of the UK, Leave won Brexit by 51.9:48.1, or about 4 percent (1.3 million votes out of 33 million, with 72% turnout. In Quebec’s 1995 election, No won by 50,000 votes out of 4.8 million with a 93% turnout.

Today, there are many independence movements. Canadian opposition leader Pierre Poilievre has to contend with Alberta separatists as he tries to get back into the House of Commons. Apparently Iran is sock puppeting for Scottish Independence, and I could go on, but I’d like to talk about the mechanisms of secession. A single vote to secede did not serve Britain well. Claims were made in the campaign for Leave that ... didn’t stand up, perhaps most famously that the UK would move £350 million a week from the EU to the NHS. (Some roundups include 7 broken Brexit promises the Tories want you to forget, or 15 things Vote Leave promised on Brexit — and what it got. That second article has a subhead of “Some Leave voters may be disappointed.”

(2/6)

#uspol#secession#voting
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Adam Shostack :donor: :rebelverified:

New blog "Voting Twice for Secession Would be More Fair" (1/6)

Reflecting on America’s Independence Day and the bloody wars* involved leads me to recognize that one of the great advances of the 20th century has been a broad recognition of a right to secede. We gained general agreement that when it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, it’s better to do so by voting rather than killing. Or, really, the free world resoundingly answered what Malcom X’s framed as “the question of the ballot or the bullet.”

Full, links: is.gd/sxj04J

a ballot on white paper, with two large checkboxes labeled yes and no. The backgroundis a cracked American flag
#uspol#secession#voting
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beSpacific

Recommended book: The Disunited States - Threats of Secession in Red and Blue America and Why They Won't Work. Ryan D. Griffiths. Examines the growing interest in a national divorce between #RedState America and #BlueState #America. Discusses how current #polarization in America is a problem, but it is one that needs to be worked out through dialogue rather than a bloody #civilwar. Brings expert analysis on the topic of #secession, & how it works #globally #democracy global.oup.com/academic/produc

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CBC Canada

Ex-cabinet minister says western separatism can fizzle out if Ottawa listens to grievances
Former federal Conservative cabinet minister Rona Ambrose says the secessionist sentiment in Alberta is an unwelcome source of uncertainty for investors — but it could fizzle out quickly if Ottawa handles it right.
#politics #economics #secession #Alberta #Ottawa #News
cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/cal

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your auntifa liza 🇵🇷 🦛 🦦

denying #FEMA funds, just like the abortion ban and attacks on transgender women, are a a forced #secession.

this is what #CivilWar looks like by guys who’ve never had to sign up to join the Army and, instead, use money to kill their opponents. this is what Civil War looks like when waged behind desks by criminals in business suits.

toad.social/@tend2wobble/11434

toad.socialtend2wobble (@tend2wobble@toad.social)Trump administration denies FEMA funds to Democratic-led states https://www.msnbc.com/top-stories/latest/fema-north-carolina-washington-recovery-funds-rcna201417
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DoomsdaysCW

Hubby, who used to teach American history, reminded me of the #HartfordConvention from 1814-15. #Maine, #Massachusetts, #Vermont, #Connecticut, #NewHampshire and #RhodeIsland had considered leaving the union and forming their own "independent republic" in opposition to "political problems arising from the federal government's increasing power. "

Excerpt:
"Some delegates may have been in favor of New England's #secession from the United States and forming an #independent republic, though no solution was adopted at the convention. Historian Samuel Eliot Morison rejected the notion that the Hartford convention was an attempt to take New England out of the Union and give treasonous aid and comfort to Britain. Morison wrote: 'Democratic politicians, seeking a foil to their own mismanagement of the war and to discredit the still formidable Federalist party, caressed and fed this infant myth until it became so tough and lusty as to defy both solemn denials and documentary proof.' "

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hartford

en.wikipedia.orgHartford Convention - Wikipedia
#USPol#USHistory#Histodon
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DoomsdaysCW

@debrashannon So yeah, the idea has been floated around. Vermont and New Hampshire would have an easier time of it, but it's not impossible. To not allow states to secede, especially under the rule of a MAD KING, is like forcing someone to stay in an abusive relationship, and not allowing them to get a divorce!
#Secession

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DoomsdaysCW

Add #Maine to this, please!

Four States Could Secede From US and Join #Canada to Avoid Trump—Democrat

Published Nov 29, 2024

A prominent Democratic New York State "Senator has floated the fanciful proposition that her state and its northeastern neighbors secede from the United States to join Canada to avoid President-elect Donald Trump's return to office.

"Liz Krueger, who chairs the New York State Senate Finance Committee, argued that the Empire State, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Vermont, could all suffer under Trump's new administration.

"Citing his proposed crackdown on immigration and promise of mass deportation, the Manhattan Democrat believes liberal and sanctuary states such as New York could be threatened with cuts in the amount of federal funding they receive, a move the incoming leader and his cabinet have suggested, should states oppose new policy measures.

"This is not the first time the New York Democrat has offered up a radical and improbable plan to counter Trump's policies, suggesting in September, ahead of his election win, that the bloc of blue states should join Canada.

" 'I thought I would suggest to Canada that instead of us all trying to illegally cross the border at night without them noticing, which is pretty hard because there's a lot of us, that they should instead agree to let us be the southeast province, a new province of Canada.

" 'And I offered, even though I hadn't gotten agreement from other states yet, that I thought New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, would combine and be a great new province as the southeast province of Canada,' Krueger said in an interview with news site City and State New York."

newsweek.com/four-states-could
#Secession #NewEngland #Canada #Resistance

Newsweek · Four States Could Secede From US and Join Canada to Avoid Trump—DemocratBy Tiah Shepherd
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Bruce MacDonald

“We will be similar to Monaco.”

A lot going on here—

"The story of the Republic of Kinney is one of dismissed town needs, a wacky, bar-born plan and the power of media attention. It involves a feisty mayor with an eye toward the limelight, a pizza roll magnate with a spare car, and printed passports logged into a loose-leaf binder."
startribune.com/republic-of-ki

www.startribune.com · How a small Minnesota town ‘seceded’ from the U.S.“We will be similar to Monaco,” Kinney’s leaders said in the 1970s.
#Minnesota#history#IronRange
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