UK Election Results<p>NOTE: MAYORAL ELECTION OPINION POLLING</p><p>An example of why polling is difficult, especially for local elections, can be found in the tables of the <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/YouGov" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>YouGov</span></a> mayoral opinion polls. </p><p>Here is a list of how the percentage of people polled reporting an 8 out of 10, or greater, certainty of voting compares to the turnout at the last set of elections in the area in question:</p><p>Reported/actual last time:</p><p>Cambs & Peterborough: 63%/37%<br>Greater Lincolnshire: 57%/35%ish<br>Hull & East Yorks: 56%/31%<br>West of England: 60%/37%</p><p>Source: <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/52069-combined-authority-mayoral-elections-2025-where-does-voting-intention-stand?utm_source=website_article&utm_medium=bluesky&utm_campaign=52069" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">yougov.co.uk/politics/articles</span><span class="invisible">/52069-combined-authority-mayoral-elections-2025-where-does-voting-intention-stand?utm_source=website_article&utm_medium=bluesky&utm_campaign=52069</span></a></p><p>So yeah, trying to accurately predict election outcomes based on opinion poll responses is hard.</p><p><a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/ukpolitics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>ukpolitics</span></a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/ukpol" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>ukpol</span></a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/polling" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>polling</span></a></p>