Putin's IBS<p><a href="https://mastodon.online/tags/German" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>German</span></a> historian and military expert <a href="https://mastodon.online/tags/S%C3%B6nke_Neitzel" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Sönke_Neitzel</span></a>:</p><p>"Nobody really knows what <a href="https://mastodon.online/tags/Putin" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Putin</span></a> wants and does. Nobody can really foresee the future, not the intelligence services or the heads of state. Nor can I do that. But there are possible scenarios.</p><p>A worst case - possibly a peace treaty, a 'negative' peace treaty in <a href="https://mastodon.online/tags/Ukraine" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Ukraine</span></a>, which frees <a href="https://mastodon.online/tags/Putin" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Putin</span></a> with his forces to do other things. And we have the big manoeuvres, the <a href="https://mastodon.online/tags/Zapad" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Zapad</span></a> manoeuvres, coming up in <a href="https://mastodon.online/tags/Belarus" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Belarus</span></a> in autumn.</p>