⚯ Michel de Cryptadamus ⚯<p>i try to avoid giving oxygen to the crypto prediction markets like <a href="https://universeodon.com/tags/Kalshi" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Kalshi</span></a> *but* i thought it was heartening that those markets currently put the odds of <a href="https://universeodon.com/tags/ElonMusk" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ElonMusk</span></a> losing the <a href="https://universeodon.com/tags/Wisconsin" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Wisconsin</span></a> judicial race he's pouring tens of millions of dollars into at 86%.</p><p>This is easily the most important election in the US for quite a long time to come and it looks like MAGA is going to go down in flames.<br><a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwiscotus/wi-state-supreme-court" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">kalshi.com/markets/kxwiscotus/</span><span class="invisible">wi-state-supreme-court</span></a></p><p><a href="https://universeodon.com/tags/SusanCrawford" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>SusanCrawford</span></a> <a href="https://universeodon.com/tags/BradSchimel" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BradSchimel</span></a> <a href="https://universeodon.com/tags/TeslaTakedown" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>TeslaTakedown</span></a> <a href="https://universeodon.com/tags/Tesla" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Tesla</span></a> <a href="https://universeodon.com/tags/PredictionMarket" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PredictionMarket</span></a> <a href="https://universeodon.com/tags/USpol" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>USpol</span></a> <a href="https://universeodon.com/tags/MAGA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>MAGA</span></a> <a href="https://universeodon.com/tags/Trump" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Trump</span></a> <a href="https://universeodon.com/tags/election" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>election</span></a></p>
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#predictionmarket
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Olivia A-C<p>New account, so new <a href="https://transfem.social/tags/introduction" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#introduction</a><span>. Let's do it again!<br><br>I have a </span><a href="https://transfem.social/tags/MastersDegree" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#MastersDegree</a> in <a href="https://transfem.social/tags/ComputerScience" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ComputerScience</a> and <a href="https://transfem.social/tags/ComputerEngineering" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ComputerEngineering</a>. I went to <a href="https://transfem.social/tags/NMU" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#NMU</a> for undergrad and <a href="https://transfem.social/tags/MSU" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#MSU</a> for my graduate degree. I currently work at <a href="https://transfem.social/tags/UChicago" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#UChicago</a> for the <a href="https://transfem.social/tags/TMWCenter" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#TMWCenter</a><span>, which focuses on helping young children acquire language (and therefore other learning skills) faster.<br><br>In my spare time, I develop </span><a href="https://transfem.social/tags/OpenSourceSoftware" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#OpenSourceSoftware</a><span> such as<br>- a </span><a href="https://transfem.social/tags/SphinxDoc" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#SphinxDoc</a> extension that embed <a href="https://transfem.social/tags/Fediverse" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Fediverse</a><span> comments on your page<br>- a library to talk to </span><a href="https://transfem.social/tags/ManifoldMarkets" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ManifoldMarkets</a> from native <a href="https://transfem.social/tags/Python" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Python</a><span><br>- a </span><a href="https://transfem.social/tags/PredictionMarket" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#PredictionMarket</a><span> manager using the above<br>- a </span><a href="https://transfem.social/tags/transpiler" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#transpiler</a> from a subset of Python to <a href="https://transfem.social/tags/OpenStreetMaps" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#OpenStreetMaps</a>'s <a href="https://transfem.social/tags/OverpassQL" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#OverpassQL</a><span><br>- bug fixes to many other projects, including </span><a href="https://transfem.social/tags/mypy" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#mypy</a>, <a href="https://transfem.social/tags/base58" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#base58</a>, <a href="https://transfem.social/tags/attrs" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#attrs</a>, <a href="https://transfem.social/tags/CPython" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#CPython</a><span>, & more<br><br>I spend a fair bit of my time these days on </span><a href="https://transfem.social/tags/MathResearch" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#MathResearch</a>, specifically into the <a href="https://transfem.social/tags/ThueMorse" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ThueMorse</a><span> Sequence and its extensions.<br><br>I'm also a hobbyist editor on OpenStreetMap.<br><br></span><a href="https://transfem.social/tags/Demisexual" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Demisexual</a>, <a href="https://transfem.social/tags/transfem" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#transfem</a>, and happily engaged to my <a href="https://transfem.social/tags/enby" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#enby</a><span> sweetheart.<br><br>We have two cats: </span><a href="https://transfem.social/tags/OpheTheLoaf" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#OpheTheLoaf</a> and <a href="https://transfem.social/tags/MayalaranTheCat" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#MayalaranTheCat</a> (yes, from <a href="https://transfem.social/tags/StormlightArchive" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#StormlightArchive</a>) See <a href="https://transfem.social/notes/a4im5yv5i02700my" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">here</a><span> for more on them!<br><br>I speak English fluently, Spanish haltingly, and am trying to learn Chinese<br><br></span><a href="https://transfem.social/tags/queer" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#queer</a> <a href="https://transfem.social/tags/Chicago" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Chicago</a></p>
Wendy Siegelman<p>Prediction market company Kalshi is adding Donald Trump Jr. as a strategic advisor.</p><p>Kalshi became prominent before the 2024 election after a court victory over the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) paved the way for legal election betting in the U.S.</p><p><a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/DonaldTrumpJr" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>DonaldTrumpJr</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/DonJr" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>DonJr</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Kalashi" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Kalashi</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/PredictionMarket" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PredictionMarket</span></a></p><p><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/13/kalshi-names-donald-trump-jr-as-strategic-advisor-to-prediction-market-firm.html" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">cnbc.com/2025/01/13/kalshi-nam</span><span class="invisible">es-donald-trump-jr-as-strategic-advisor-to-prediction-market-firm.html</span></a></p>
Olivia A-C<p>Oh dang, my <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/introduction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>introduction</span></a> post is waaay out of date now. Let's do it again!</p><p>I have a <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/MastersDegree" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>MastersDegree</span></a> in <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/ComputerScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ComputerScience</span></a> and <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/ComputerEngineering" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ComputerEngineering</span></a>. I went to <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/NMU" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>NMU</span></a> for undergrad and <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/MSU" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>MSU</span></a> for my graduate degree. I currently work at <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/UChicago" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>UChicago</span></a> for the <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/TMWCenter" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>TMWCenter</span></a>, which focuses on helping young children acquire language (and therefore other learning skills) faster.</p><p>In my spare time, I develop <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/OpenSourceSoftware" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>OpenSourceSoftware</span></a> such as</p><ul><li>a library to talk to <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/ManifoldMarkets" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ManifoldMarkets</span></a> from native <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/Python" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Python</span></a></li><li>a <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/PredictionMarket" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PredictionMarket</span></a> manager using the above</li><li>a <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/transpiler" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>transpiler</span></a> from a subset of Python to <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/OpenStreetMaps" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>OpenStreetMaps</span></a>'s <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/OverpassQL" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>OverpassQL</span></a></li><li>bug fixes to many other projects, including <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/mypy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>mypy</span></a>, <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/base58" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>base58</span></a>, <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/attrs" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>attrs</span></a>, <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/CPython" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CPython</span></a>, & more</li></ul><p>I spend a fair bit of my time these days on <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/MathResearch" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>MathResearch</span></a>, specifically into the <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/ThueMorse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ThueMorse</span></a> Sequence and its extensions.</p><p>I'm also a hobbyist editor on OpenStreetMap.</p><p><a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/Demisexual" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Demisexual</span></a>, <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/transfem" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>transfem</span></a>, and happily engaged to my <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/enby" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>enby</span></a> sweetheart.</p><p>We have two cats: <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/OpheTheLoaf" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>OpheTheLoaf</span></a> and <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/MayalaranTheCat" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>MayalaranTheCat</span></a> (yes, from <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/StormlightArchive" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>StormlightArchive</span></a>)</p><p><a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/queer" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>queer</span></a> <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/Chicago" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Chicago</span></a></p>
schmofarz<p>Don't use <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/polymarket" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>polymarket</span></a>. This <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/prediction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>prediction</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/market" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>market</span></a> website begins to mine <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/cryptocurrencies" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>cryptocurrencies</span></a> in your browser when a window or tab with a polymarket address is not in use for a while.</p><p>They <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/steal" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>steal</span></a> your energy and computing resources.</p><p><a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/predictionmarket" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>predictionmarket</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/gamble" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>gamble</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/gambling" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>gambling</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/money" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>money</span></a></p>
Hobson Lane<p>If you like estimates of which <a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/technology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>technology</span></a> R&D approaches are likely to succeed, or interested in where <a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/AI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>AI</span></a> is headed, you might enjoy this Metaculus question. Open for comment now & prediction in 2 days. Resolves in Dec.</p><p>"Will conventional pre-<a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/LLM" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>LLM</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/GOFAI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>GOFAI</span></a> (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & <a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/Reasoning" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Reasoning</span></a> Corpus (<a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/ARC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ARC</span></a>) competition?"</p><p><a href="https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28655/will-gofai-be-a-part-of-the-arc-prize-winner/#comment-194423" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">metaculus.com/questions/28655/</span><span class="invisible">will-gofai-be-a-part-of-the-arc-prize-winner/#comment-194423</span></a></p><p><a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/Metaculus" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Metaculus</span></a> is a nonmonetary (<a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/karma" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>karma</span></a>-based) <a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/PredictionMarket" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PredictionMarket</span></a>.</p>
Don Marti<p>Maybe the best way to evaluate "AI" is: can a bot stay solvent in a <a href="https://federate.social/tags/predictionMarket" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>predictionMarket</span></a> while paying interest on its stake and rent for its computing resources?</p><p><a href="https://blog.zgp.org/money-bots-talk/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="">blog.zgp.org/money-bots-talk/</span><span class="invisible"></span></a></p><p>(plus hella bonus links this time...for some reason the AI skeptic articles are better written than the AI fan articles, maybe it's the whole pay the writers thing?) <a href="https://federate.social/tags/predictionMarkets" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>predictionMarkets</span></a></p>
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