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#predictionmarket

1 post1 participant1 post today
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⚯ Michel de Cryptadamus ⚯

i try to avoid giving oxygen to the crypto prediction markets like #Kalshi *but* i thought it was heartening that those markets currently put the odds of #ElonMusk losing the #Wisconsin judicial race he's pouring tens of millions of dollars into at 86%.

This is easily the most important election in the US for quite a long time to come and it looks like MAGA is going to go down in flames.
kalshi.com/markets/kxwiscotus/

chart showing susan crawford favored over brad schimel by 86/16
#SusanCrawford#BradSchimel#TeslaTakedown
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Olivia A-C

New account, so new #introduction. Let's do it again!

I have a #MastersDegree in #ComputerScience and #ComputerEngineering. I went to #NMU for undergrad and #MSU for my graduate degree. I currently work at #UChicago for the #TMWCenter, which focuses on helping young children acquire language (and therefore other learning skills) faster.

In my spare time, I develop #OpenSourceSoftware such as
- a #SphinxDoc extension that embed #Fediverse comments on your page
- a library to talk to #ManifoldMarkets from native #Python
- a #PredictionMarket manager using the above
- a #transpiler from a subset of Python to #OpenStreetMaps's #OverpassQL
- bug fixes to many other projects, including #mypy, #base58, #attrs, #CPython, & more

I spend a fair bit of my time these days on #MathResearch, specifically into the #ThueMorse Sequence and its extensions.

I'm also a hobbyist editor on OpenStreetMap.

#Demisexual, #transfem, and happily engaged to my #enby sweetheart.

We have two cats: #OpheTheLoaf and #MayalaranTheCat (yes, from #StormlightArchive) See here for more on them!

I speak English fluently, Spanish haltingly, and am trying to learn Chinese

#queer #Chicago

TransFem SpaceOlivia A-C (@LivInTheLookingGlass)These are our cats, #OpheTheLoaf and #MayalaranTheCat. Ophelia was originally my partner's, we live together full time now, and are an integrated family Fun facts about Ophelia: * She is missing a tooth, so her lip sometimes gets stuck open in a cute way * She has an "activation noise" that sounds kinda like a pigeon * She will often do 10/10 loafs, hence the nickname Some facts about Maya: * Her favorite hobby is judging the neighbors * She is very anxious * She has an incredibly dainty play style * She has a series of increasingly ridiculous nicknames: Mayalaran -> Maya -> Mayo -> Aioli -> Au Jus (Follow the hashtags if you want just my cats) #CatsOfMastodon #CatsOfFedi (📎8)
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Olivia A-C

Oh dang, my #introduction post is waaay out of date now. Let's do it again!

I have a #MastersDegree in #ComputerScience and #ComputerEngineering. I went to #NMU for undergrad and #MSU for my graduate degree. I currently work at #UChicago for the #TMWCenter, which focuses on helping young children acquire language (and therefore other learning skills) faster.

In my spare time, I develop #OpenSourceSoftware such as

I spend a fair bit of my time these days on #MathResearch, specifically into the #ThueMorse Sequence and its extensions.

I'm also a hobbyist editor on OpenStreetMap.

#Demisexual, #transfem, and happily engaged to my #enby sweetheart.

We have two cats: #OpheTheLoaf and #MayalaranTheCat (yes, from #StormlightArchive)

Two cats are by a sliding glass window. The one towards the top of the frame (named Ophelia) is laying on a heat pad and staring at the second cat. The second cat (named Maya) is towards the bottom of the frame. She is sat on the entry rug with her body poked between the blinds on the window, so that she can look outside.
There are two cats in frame, near a very small cat tower. On top of the tower, Ophelia is laying down. Below, in a meercat-like pose, is Maya. She is trying to get a better view of the other cat. They didn't know each other very well at this time.
A gray cat, Maya, is laying on the couch. She is curled up such that her belly and paws are all exposed, though her tail is tucked near her feet. She looks peacefully asleep
A gray/gray-orange cat is laying on a white blanket. Her name is Ophelia, and she has one eye half open, which is a brilliant green-orange. She is very relaxed. You get the faint impression of a person's legs underneath the blanket
#queer#Chicago
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Hobson Lane

If you like estimates of which #technology R&D approaches are likely to succeed, or interested in where #AI is headed, you might enjoy this Metaculus question. Open for comment now & prediction in 2 days. Resolves in Dec.

"Will conventional pre-#LLM #GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & #Reasoning Corpus (#ARC) competition?"

metaculus.com/questions/28655/

#Metaculus is a nonmonetary (#karma-based) #PredictionMarket.

www.metaculus.comWill conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition?
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Don Marti

Maybe the best way to evaluate "AI" is: can a bot stay solvent in a #predictionMarket while paying interest on its stake and rent for its computing resources?

blog.zgp.org/money-bots-talk/

(plus hella bonus links this time...for some reason the AI skeptic articles are better written than the AI fan articles, maybe it's the whole pay the writers thing?) #predictionMarkets

blog.zgp.orgMoney bots talk and bullshit bots walk?
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