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#CMIP6

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Ruth Mottram<p>Way back in 2022, as the world tried to readjust back to "normal" following COVID - I helped to co-organise a bootcamp with sponsorhop from the <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://bird.makeup/users/wcrp_climate" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@<span>wcrp_climate</span></a></span> IASC, <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://beta.birdsite.live/users/esaclimate" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@<span>esaclimate</span></a></span> and a generous dollop of help from <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://fediscience.org/@PolarRES" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@<span>PolarRES</span></a></span> and <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://bird.makeup/users/dmidk" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@<span>dmidk</span></a></span> colleagues. <br>We gathered 10 senior scientist mentors and 22 students in an old torpedo research station (now used by Roskilde University) for 10 days. It was an extremely intense period but the 4th paper produced by this talented group has just come out. <br>I consider facilitating <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/EarlyCareerScientists" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>EarlyCareerScientists</span></a> to work on important science problems an extremely rewarding part of my job, and I'm looking forward to the next one already as part of our PISCO project. </p><p>In the mean time, go and read this extremely cool work, collecting together a huge number of radiosonde observations going back to the 1950s over the Arctic Ocean and using them to assess how well CMIP6 models represent lower atmosphere. </p><p><a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/CMIP6" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>CMIP6</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/ClimateModels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateModels</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/Arctic" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Arctic</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/ArcticClimate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>ArcticClimate</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/SeaIce" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>SeaIce</span></a></p><p><a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024JD041412" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.co</span><span class="invisible">m/doi/10.1029/2024JD041412</span></a></p>
Ruth Mottram<p>Looking up the old <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/CMIP6" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>CMIP6</span></a> emissions pathways for a thing - and while I wish I lived in SSP1, it feels a lot more like SSP3 or 5 right now. </p><p>Beats me why they call <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/Economics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Economics</span></a> the Dismal Science...🫠</p><p>Full link to paper: <a href="https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/12/1443/2019/" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">gmd.copernicus.org/articles/12</span><span class="invisible">/1443/2019/</span></a></p>
Dr. Robert Rohde<p>Given the highly unlikely nature of this abrupt record, it suggests that models may not be fully representing recent climate changes.</p><p>This could be due to recent reductions in man-made aerosol emissions, the 2022 Hunga Tonga volcano eruption, or other factors.</p><p><a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/ClimateChange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateChange</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/GlobalWarming" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>GlobalWarming</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/CMIP6" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>CMIP6</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/HungaTonga" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>HungaTonga</span></a></p><p>4/</p>
Dr. Robert Rohde<p>September breaking the monthly global temperature record by 0.50 °C (0.90 °F) is unprecedented and highly unlikely.</p><p>An examination of CMIP6 climate models used to simulate global warming would lead us to estimate the chance of this occurring at ~1 in 10,000.</p><p><a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/ClimateChange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateChange</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/GlobalWarming" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>GlobalWarming</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/CMIP6" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>CMIP6</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/Climate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Climate</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/Weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Weather</span></a></p><p>3/</p>
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