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#2024yr4

8 posts5 participants0 posts today
Michael Busch<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://mastodon.social/@asrivkin" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>asrivkin</span></a></span> et al.:</p><p>"Future observations through 2025 May will help further refine the asteroid's thermophysical model."</p><p>"At this writing a 2032 impact with the Moon has not been ruled out. After 2025 May, <a href="https://mastodon.online/tags/2024YR4" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>2024YR4</span></a> will next enter JWST's observing window in the first part of 2026."</p>
Michael Busch<p>Today in Research Notes of the American Astronomical Society:</p><p>Rivkin et al. 2025, "JWST Observations of Potentially Hazardous Asteroid 2024 YR4" - <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2515-5172/adc6f0" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">iopscience.iop.org/article/10.</span><span class="invisible">3847/2515-5172/adc6f0</span></a></p><p><a href="https://mastodon.online/tags/2024YR4" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>2024YR4</span></a></p>
Astro Hawk (Ian Kluft) 🚀🛰️<p>"James Webb telescope takes emergency look at 'city-killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 ahead of close encounter in 2032" by <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://flipboard.com/@LiveScience" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>LiveScience</span></a></span> - <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/NASA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>NASA</span></a> <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/JWST" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>JWST</span></a> observations confirm <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/asteroid" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>asteroid</span></a> <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/2024YR4" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>2024YR4</span></a> will not impact Earth on the Dec 22, 2032 fly-by. An impact on the <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/Moon" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Moon</span></a>🌒 is still not ruled out. Another JWST observation is scheduled for May before the rock disappears into the dark outer solar system for several years. <a href="https://www.livescience.com/space/asteroids/james-webb-telescope-takes-emergency-look-at-city-killer-asteroid-2024-yr4-ahead-of-close-encounter-in-2032" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">livescience.com/space/asteroid</span><span class="invisible">s/james-webb-telescope-takes-emergency-look-at-city-killer-asteroid-2024-yr4-ahead-of-close-encounter-in-2032</span></a> <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/astronomy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>astronomy</span></a> <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/PlanetaryDefense" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PlanetaryDefense</span></a> <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/PlanetaryDefence" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PlanetaryDefence</span></a> <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/LowFlyingRocks" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>LowFlyingRocks</span></a> <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/space" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>space</span></a></p>
Astro Hawk (Ian Kluft) 🚀🛰️<p>"A Near-Miss with a City-Killer Asteroid Highlights Gaps in Earth’s Defenses" by <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://flipboard.com/@SciAm" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>SciAm</span></a></span> - Increasing capabilities to search for the next wayward <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/asteroid" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>asteroid</span></a> will mean recurring news like <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/2024YR4" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>2024YR4</span></a> where a threat is evaluated for potential collision course with Earth. At some point, we will find one headed here. Planning and test exercises try to become prepared for what to do when we know one is coming. <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-planetary-defenders-planned-to-stop-that-city-killer-asteroid/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">scientificamerican.com/article</span><span class="invisible">/how-planetary-defenders-planned-to-stop-that-city-killer-asteroid/</span></a> <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/astronomy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>astronomy</span></a> <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/PlanetaryDefense" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PlanetaryDefense</span></a> <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/PlanetaryDefence" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PlanetaryDefence</span></a> <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/LowFlyingRocks" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>LowFlyingRocks</span></a> <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/space" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>space</span></a></p>
Daniel Fischer<p>JWST obtained measurements of famous <a href="https://scicomm.xyz/tags/2024YR4" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>2024YR4</span></a> on 26 March 2025: <a href="https://iawn.net/obscamp/2024YR4/gallery/YR4_memo_final_27mar25.pdf" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">iawn.net/obscamp/2024YR4/galle</span><span class="invisible">ry/YR4_memo_final_27mar25.pdf</span></a> - modeling of the spectral energy distribution "indicates an estimated diameter of 60 ± 7 m. [...] Additional observations of 2024 YR4 will be made by JWST in May 2025, which will primarily help refine the orbital and thermal properties of 2024 YR4. While an Earth impact by 2024 YR4 on December 22, 2032 has now been ruled out, it continues to have a non-zero probability of impacting the Moon at this time."</p>
Michael Busch<p><a href="https://mastodon.online/tags/2024YR4" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>2024YR4</span></a> work led by <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://mastodon.social/@asrivkin" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>asrivkin</span></a></span> .</p><p>Estimated diameter 60 ± 7 m.</p><p>"Additional observations of 2024 YR4 will be made by JWST in May 2025, which will<br>primarily help refine the orbital and thermal properties of 2024 YR4. While an Earth impact by 2024 YR4 on December 22, 2032 has now been ruled out, it continues to have a non-zero probability of impacting the Moon at this time. "</p><p><a href="https://iawn.net/obscamp/2024YR4/gallery/YR4_memo_final_27mar25.pdf" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">iawn.net/obscamp/2024YR4/galle</span><span class="invisible">ry/YR4_memo_final_27mar25.pdf</span></a></p>
Daniel Fischer<p>Oops! As revealed in passing at the Hera press conference <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8njR4413hok" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">youtube.com/watch?v=8njR4413ho</span><span class="invisible">k</span></a> yesterday in minute 51 astrometry with Webb is apparently increasing the impact probability of asteroid <a href="https://scicomm.xyz/tags/2024YR4" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>2024YR4</span></a> on the Moon significantly above the current ~2% - „this will be a close one for the Moon," the ESA planetary defense boss said but we probably won't know until 2028 what will happen.</p>
IT News<p>Hackaday Links: March 2, 2025 - It’s been quite a week for asteroid 2024 YR4, which looked like it was going to li... - <a href="https://hackaday.com/2025/03/02/hackaday-links-march-2-2025/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">hackaday.com/2025/03/02/hackad</span><span class="invisible">ay-links-march-2-2025/</span></a> <a href="https://schleuss.online/tags/lunarreconnaisanceorbiter" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>lunarreconnaisanceorbiter</span></a> <a href="https://schleuss.online/tags/hackadaycolumns" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>hackadaycolumns</span></a> <a href="https://schleuss.online/tags/hackadaylinks" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>hackadaylinks</span></a> <a href="https://schleuss.online/tags/frankwhittle" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>frankwhittle</span></a> <a href="https://schleuss.online/tags/trillionaire" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>trillionaire</span></a> <a href="https://schleuss.online/tags/citykiller" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>citykiller</span></a> <a href="https://schleuss.online/tags/jetengine" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>jetengine</span></a> <a href="https://schleuss.online/tags/photobomb" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>photobomb</span></a> <a href="https://schleuss.online/tags/asteroid" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>asteroid</span></a> <a href="https://schleuss.online/tags/citibank" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>citibank</span></a> <a href="https://schleuss.online/tags/nearmiss" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>nearmiss</span></a> <a href="https://schleuss.online/tags/2024yr4" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>2024yr4</span></a> <a href="https://schleuss.online/tags/slider" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>slider</span></a> <a href="https://schleuss.online/tags/torino" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>torino</span></a> <a href="https://schleuss.online/tags/prank" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>prank</span></a> <a href="https://schleuss.online/tags/ssid" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ssid</span></a> <a href="https://schleuss.online/tags/lro" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>lro</span></a></p>
Daniel Fischer<p>Preliminary Analysis into the Feasibility of Missions to Asteroid <a href="https://scicomm.xyz/tags/2024YR4" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>2024YR4</span></a>: <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.19346" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="">arxiv.org/abs/2502.19346</span><span class="invisible"></span></a> -&gt; "it is found that 2024 YR4 represents an 'opportunity rich environment' and bodes well for any future attempts by humanity to either examine this object close up, or even to deflect it if necessary."</p>
Spaceflight 🚀<p>"The YR4 episode is just the beginning for <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/astronomers" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>astronomers</span></a> gaining the capability to see 🔭 these objects ☄️ before they come calling through our neck of the woods." <a href="https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/02/asteroid-2024-yr4-may-be-a-dud-but-we-will-soon-find-many-more-threats" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">arstechnica.com/space/2025/02/</span><span class="invisible">asteroid-2024-yr4-may-be-a-dud-but-we-will-soon-find-many-more-threats</span></a></p><p><a href="https://spacey.space/tags/AsteroidThreat" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>AsteroidThreat</span></a> <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/Astronomy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Astronomy</span></a> <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/2024YR4" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>2024YR4</span></a></p>
Michael Busch<p>Addendum to earlier <a href="https://mastodon.online/tags/2024YR4" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>2024YR4</span></a> post:</p><p>Bill Gray cautions that the lunar impact risk corridor plot he released yesterday may have been flipped in longitude - <a href="https://groups.io/g/mpml/topic/problem_with_lunar_impact_map/111360567" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">groups.io/g/mpml/topic/problem</span><span class="invisible">_with_lunar_impact_map/111360567</span></a></p>
Astro Hawk (Ian Kluft) 🚀🛰️<p>"Asteroid 2024 YR4 is going to miss Earth, but the story doesn’t end there" by <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://mastodon.social/@arstechnica" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>arstechnica</span></a></span> / <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://journa.host/@sciguyspace" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>sciguyspace</span></a></span> - The orbit of <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/Asteroid" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Asteroid</span></a> <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/2024YR4" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>2024YR4</span></a> has been narrowed down enough to know it will not hit Earth. Get used to more asteroids being evaluated as potential threats. The good news is that humanity is increasingly able to find these threats which were already out there. Don't be a dinosaur.🦕🦖🌠 <a href="https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/02/asteroid-2024-yr4-may-be-a-dud-but-we-will-soon-find-many-more-threats/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">arstechnica.com/space/2025/02/</span><span class="invisible">asteroid-2024-yr4-may-be-a-dud-but-we-will-soon-find-many-more-threats/</span></a> <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/astronomy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>astronomy</span></a> <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/PlanetaryDefense" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PlanetaryDefense</span></a> <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/PlanetaryDefence" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PlanetaryDefence</span></a> <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/LowFlyingRocks" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>LowFlyingRocks</span></a> <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/space" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>space</span></a></p>
Astronomer Royal for Scotland | Catherine Heymans<p>Incase anyone was still worrying about the "city-killer" asteroid, today's <a class="hashtag" href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%232024YR4" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#2024YR4</a> update reduces the chances of impact to 1-in-59000 (99.9983% chance it will miss 🥳). There will be other asteroids in the future, but you can rest easy knowing that astronomers are watching the skies for you! 🔭🧪<br><br>RE: <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:ok3ms3dzop7gcwejp7lswhpi/post/3lio7smists2t" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:ok3ms3dzop7gcwejp7lswhpi/post/3lio7smists2t</a></p>
Lazarou Monkey Terror 🚀💙🌈<p>Sorry folks, we're going to have to fix our problems ourselves</p><p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/feb/24/chance-giant-asteroid-hitting-earth-2032-falls" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">theguardian.com/science/2025/f</span><span class="invisible">eb/24/chance-giant-asteroid-hitting-earth-2032-falls</span></a></p><p><a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/2024YR4" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>2024YR4</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Space" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Space</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Asteroids" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Asteroids</span></a> n</p>
Daniel Fischer<p>The impact probability of asteroid <a href="https://scicomm.xyz/tags/2024YR4" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>2024YR4</span></a> keeps sliding with new astrometry, to 1 in 59k for NASA, 1 in 79k for ESA and 1 in 650k for NEODys today - the animation <a href="https://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/files/2025/02/YR4-risk-GIF-pause-crop-24Feb.gif" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/fi</span><span class="invisible">les/2025/02/YR4-risk-GIF-pause-crop-24Feb.gif</span></a> shows how the clould of asteroid clones shrank over time until the Earth was barely touched by it. (Meanwhile the risk corridor picture for the Moon has been withdrawn by the author because of a suspected math problem.)</p>
Mark Wieczorek<p>When I learned that asteroid <a href="https://solarsystem.social/tags/2024YR4" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>2024YR4</span></a> probably wasn't going to hit the Earth, I was</p>
Michael Busch<p><a href="https://mastodon.online/tags/2024YR4" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>2024YR4</span></a> update:</p><p>With the latest astrometry; the trajectory fit now has minimal Earth impact probability - about 4e-5 in 2032 and some parts per million in later passes.</p><p>The potential lunar impact in 2032 remains.</p><p><a href="https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2024%20YR4" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/deta</span><span class="invisible">ils.html#?des=2024%20YR4</span></a></p>
Corey S Powell<p>We can now safely say, asteroid 2024 YR4 is not coming for us after all.</p><p>Latest observations indicate that the asteroid has just a 0.0039% risk of hitting Earth in 2032. But there's still a small chance it could hit the Moon.</p><p><a href="https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2024%20YR4" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/deta</span><span class="invisible">ils.html#?des=2024%20YR4</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/science" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>science</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/space" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>space</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/2024YR4" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>2024YR4</span></a></p>
Astro Hawk (Ian Kluft) 🚀🛰️<p>"You’re going to see more ‘city-killer’ asteroids, but fret not, MIT astronomer says" by KTLA Los Angeles - <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/Asteroid" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Asteroid</span></a> <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/2024YR4" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>2024YR4</span></a> is a useful example of what we're likely to see more often as astronomers get better equipment to locate rocks that have always been out there but previously passed unseen in the dark. Observation of an asteroid's orbit should look like this each time. <a href="https://ktla.com/news/nationworld/city-killer-asteroids-more-common/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">ktla.com/news/nationworld/city</span><span class="invisible">-killer-asteroids-more-common/</span></a> <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/astronomy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>astronomy</span></a> <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/PlanetaryDefense" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PlanetaryDefense</span></a> <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/PlanetaryDefence" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PlanetaryDefence</span></a> <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/LowFlyingRocks" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>LowFlyingRocks</span></a> <a href="https://spacey.space/tags/space" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>space</span></a></p>
Daniel Fischer<p>The asteroid <a href="https://scicomm.xyz/tags/2024YR4" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>2024YR4</span></a> is no longer a threat to Earth today: NASA, ESA and NEODys have impact probabilites for 2032 of 1 in 26k, 1 in 62k and 1 in 225k, respectively with astrometry until today. But the impact probability of the Moon has further risen to about 1 in 56: <a href="https://groups.io/g/mpml/topic/111344402#msg40319" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">groups.io/g/mpml/topic/1113444</span><span class="invisible">02#msg40319</span></a>! FWIW, here is the risk corridor for our neighbor: <a href="https://www.projectpluto.com/temp/yr4/moon.png" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">projectpluto.com/temp/yr4/moon</span><span class="invisible">.png</span></a></p>
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